Impact of Agricultural Support on Environmental and Climate Objectives

This note synthesises the available literature examining the impact of agricultural support on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as well as its impact on water, biodiversity, and land. In keeping with the Secretariat's impartiality, the note reports the findings as they appear in the literature. The primary source of analysis is the work conducted by Ash and Cox (2022), supplemented by additional insights from recent literature on this subject.

WTO > Working papers

Better Together: How Digital Connectivity and Regulation Reduce Trade Costs

In this paper we study the impact of digitalization on trade costs in 58 economies over the period 2014 - 2018. Improvements in digital connectivity can reduce trade costs through multiple channels, including better access to information, lower transaction costs, the reduced need for business travel, more efficient customs and logistics, and easier communication. However, these positive effects depend on effective regulation that ensures trust in digital markets and open access to digital infrastructure, services and data.

WTO > Working papers

Export licensing in the WTO context

This paper addresses the issue of export licensing procedures in the WTO context. It aims to contribute to the understanding of the existing rules applicable to export licensing in the WTO, and what the development of specific disciplines would mean to international trade.

WTO > Working papers

International trade cooperation’s impact on the world economy

In this study, we investigate three trade policy scenarios: i) the revival of multilateralism, ii) plurilateral cooperation, and iii) geopolitical rivalry. In the first scenario, both tariffs and NTMs are reduced on a multilateral basis. In the second scenario, varying groups of countries cooperate on specific topics, such as E-commerce and services. In the last scenario, two main blocks emerge: a Western block and an Eastern block. International cooperation breaks down between blocks, leading to an increase in tariffs and NTMs, with blocks of countries setting up their own set of rules. Our findings are based on simulations with the WTO Global trade Model which has a specific novel feature:..

WTO > Working papers

How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?

In this paper the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic, demographic, sectoral and trade cost variables, the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes.

WTO > Working papers

A Novel Framework to Evaluate Changes in Access to and Costs of Trade Finance

In this paper we integrate the costs of trade finance in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the trade and output effects of counterfactual policy experiments on costs of and access to trade finance. The costs of financing international trade consist of two components: the financial costs and the costs associated with the risk of goods not being delivered, considering risk aversion of traders. These costs are determined for four ways to finance international trade (cash-in-advance, trade loans, letters of credit, and exports financed with internal working capital). Trade finance costs are a weighted average of the costs under the four different ways of financing.

WTO > Working papers

Trade policy implications of a changing world: tariffs and import market power

Economic theory suggests that countries' tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed economic conditions. Using a newly built dataset of pre-Uruguay Round applied tariffs and relying on the theoretical framework of the terms-of-trade motive for trade agreements, we estimate hypothetical tariff commitments under current levels of market power and compare them with actual tariff commitments.

WTO > Working papers

Regulatory disciplines on the mobility of service professionals – lessons from Regional Trade Agreements

When it comes to services traded through the international movement of individuals (mode 4), Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have increasingly adopted trade-facilitating disciplines that both build upon and innovate the GATS framework. By analysing relevant provisions of RTAs, we are able to identify trends and commonalities in approach.

WTO > Working papers

Comparing different approaches to tackle the challenges of global carbon pricing

Climate change mitigation faces two main policy challenges: the need for global cooperation to tackle the collective action problem and the need to share the burden of global carbon pricing fair way following the principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBRD). In this paper we explore the best ways to incentivize regions to reduce their CO2 emissions while minimizing the welfare losses for low-income countries using simulations with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.

WTO > Working papers

The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation

Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the welfare costs of such conflicts are modest. We build a multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model with dynamic sector-specific knowledge diffusion, which magnifies welfare losses of trade conflicts. Idea diffusion is mediated by the input-output structure of production, such that both sector cost shares and import trade shares characterize the source distribution of ideas.

WTO > Working papers

Means of Liberalization and Beyond: Understanding Scheduling Approaches in Services Trade Agreements

The scheduling approach constitutes a key element of services trade agreements as it is the means to pursue liberalization. This paper provides an overview of the scheduling approaches adopted in 187 trade agreements notified under GATS Article V as of 30 April 2022, analyses the differences between the positive and negative list approaches, and discusses their implications for negotiation strategies and trade policies.

WTO > Working papers

The future of global value chains and the role of the WTO

Disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) — caused by conflicts, natural disasters, and accidents that close transport routes — and that affect specific regions or sectors, are not unusual. However, in recent years and amid the Covid-19 pandemic, they have become more frequent and severe. High profile, sizeable, and repeated disruptions raise pressing questions: Is the breakdown in many GVCs a temporary glitch, or a permanent phenomenon? Have GVCs become endemically more accident prone, and why? And if so, are firms going to rely less on them? If a sustained withdrawal from GVCs occurs, how will business models be reshaped, and what will be the consequences for growth and inflati..

WTO > Working papers

COVID-19 vs. GFC: A Firm-level Trade Margins Analysis Using Kenyan Data

This study describes trade margins (intensive and extensive) and establishes determinants of the mid-point export and import growth during the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic by relying on Kenya’s monthly customs transaction data (at 6-digit level of Harmonized System) for the period January 2006–June 2020. Exports fell during the two crises, of which the intensive margin was responsible for the drop during GFC while the extensive margin dominated the COVID-19 era. Imports are mainly driven by the extensive margin which grew during GFC but declined during the pandemic.

WTO > Working papers

Applying import-adjustmed demand methodology to trade analysis during the COVID-19 crisis: what do we learn?

In this paper, we estimated the standard (macro-economic) import equation over the period 1995-2021Q2, using an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD) calculated from input-output tables at country level, and compared the results with regressions using GDP. Initially introduced by Bussière (2013), this "synthetic" concept of IAD was perfected, inter alia, by the IMF (2016) and by us (2017), with a view to explaining the "missing" trade flows unpredicted by GDP-based import models during the trade collapse of 2009 and subsequent recovery from it.

WTO > Working papers

Preference utilization in the global economy: an empirical analysis

This paper analyses the determinants of preference utilization using a novel WTO dataset that allows us to measure the underutilization of preferences across several importers, exporters and products over time. Building on the previous literature, we confirm that preference utilization is increasing with the size of exports, preference margin and geographical and linguistic proximity. We find that utilization rates tend to be higher for reciprocal preferences compared to non-reciprocal preferences, and that the incentive to use preferences increases with the share of competitors’ exports that is eligible for preferential treatment.

WTO > Working papers

B2B E-commerce marketplaces and MSMES: evidence of Global Value Chain facilitation?

In theory, e-commerce marketplaces connect buyers and sellers, open trade opportunities, and reduce transaction costs thereby creating opportunities for more inclusive trade and even GVC participation, especially for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Further, there is some evidence that MSMEs are more likely to use e-commerce marketplaces than large firms given these websites reduce search frictions and transaction costs, which can be relatively more beneficial for smaller firms.

WTO > Working papers

The impact of LDC graduation on trade: a quantitative assessment

Several Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) will graduate from the LDC status in the coming decade implying that they will lose preferential access to export markets. We quantify the expected impact of LDC graduation on exports of graduating and non-graduating LDCs incorporating detailed preference utilization data in a partial equilibrium model. We compare the results under actual and full preference utilization rates. Separately, we explore how underutilization of tariff preferences affects the exports of countries benefiting from such preferences.

WTO > Working papers

Innovation and patenting activities of COVID-19 vaccines in WTO members: Analytical review of Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) COVID-19 Vaccines Patent Landscape (VaxPaL)

This working paper provides a statistical analysis of 74 patent families which cover subject matter relevant to ten COVID-19 vaccines. These vaccines have accounted for 99% of the global COVID‑19 vaccine production as of 31 December 2021, comprising over ten billion doses.

WTO > Working papers

How do environmental policies affect green innovation and trade? Evidence from the WTO Environmental Database (EDB)

This study investigates how environmental policies impact trade and innovation in environmental goods. We make two major contributions to the economic debate. First, we extract a set of information from the WTO Environmental Database (EDB) through natural language processing techniques that could be useful for future research and policy analysis. Second, we use this data to test a set of economic hypotheses on how environmental measures impact environmental innovation and trade.

WTO > Working papers

Communication break down: Typology of telecommunications provisions in Regional Trade Agreements

Although a growing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) include telecommunications provisions, the collection and systematization of information on telecommunications provisions in RTAs remain limited. This paper addresses this gap by mapping and reviewing the different types of provisions on telecommunications found in RTAs that have been notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

WTO > Working papers

Services Domestic Regulation — Locking in Good Regulatory Practices

Services is the fastest-growing sector of today's global economy and trade in services is the most dynamic segment of world trade. However, its potential remains constrained by a variety of barriers: trade costs are estimated to be almost double those in goods, and more than 40% of trade costs are accounted for by regulation-related factors. Regulatory measures related to the permission to supply a service, i.e. those related to licensing and qualifications requirements and procedures, and technical standards, can particularly affect service suppliers' ability to trade. With a view to mitigating the unintended trade-restrictive effects of such measures, since 2017, a group of Members has bee..

WTO > Working papers

Assessing the Supply Chain Effect of Natural Disasters — Evidence from Chinese Manufacturers

This paper uses Chinese firm level data to detect the international propagation of adverse shocks triggered by the US hurricane season in 2005. We provide evidence that Chinese processing manufacturers with tight trade linkages to the United States reduced their intermediate imports from the United States between July and October 2005.

WTO > Working papers

Buena Vista social corporate responsibility provisions in Regional Trade Agreements

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an integral part of many companies' business strategy. A detailed analysis of 579 RTAs, including 305 agreements currently in force and notified to the WTO (as of December 2020), reveals that a limited but increasing number of RTAs, namely 65 agreements, refer explicitly to CSR. These CSR-related provisions are particularly heterogeneous in terms of location in the RTA, language, scope and commitments.

WTO > Working papers

“Agricultural products” and “fishery products” in the GATT and WTO: a history of relevant discussions on product scope during negotiations

The WTO Agreement on Agriculture applies to those “agricultural products” as defined in its Annex 1. This definition expressly excludes “fish and fish products” from the scope of application of the Agreement. In light of this exclusion, the paper is intended to provide a historical account of the relationship between agricultural products and fishery products in the context of the negotiations leading to and during the GATT period up to the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, and some of its implications for WTO negotiations.

WTO > Working papers

Africa's integration in the WTO Multilateral Trading System: academic support and the role of WTO Chairs

The Marrakesh Agreement establishing the WTO recognizes the need for positive efforts designed to ensure that developing countries and especially the least developed among them secure a share in the growth in international trade commensurate with the needs of their economic development.This article discusses how the WTO contributes to facilitating Africa's integration into the WTO multilateral trading system. It is argued that, while African countries are actively engaged in the work of the WTO, securing their economic and policy interests, some main challenges remain. These include the need to further diversify production, linking to the Global Value Chains and developing adequate infra-str..

WTO > Working papers

The Impact of Services Liberalization on Education: Evidence from India

This paper studies the impact of services liberalization on education and the gender education gap at the district level in India. We focus on the time period 1987 to 1999 and three services sectors - banking, insurance and telecommunications - which were all state monopolies, have been heavily liberalized in the time frame studied, have relatively high shares of female employment and require high education investments. Our hypothesis is that the national-level liberalization spurred higher investment in education, particularly girls? education, in districts with higher employment growth in these key services sectors.

WTO > Working papers

COVID-19 AND GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS - A discussion of arguments on value chain organization and the role of the WTO

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a discussion among researchers and policy makers about changes to global value chains, both about expected changes and changes that should be promoted by government policies. In this paper we conduct an in-depth analysis of the reasons for changes in global value chains as a result of COVID-19 both from a positive angle, analysing expected changes in the behaviour of firms, and from a normative angle, assessing the different arguments for policy interventions by governments. After this analysis international cooperation of trade policies and the role of WTO in crises like the COVID-19 pandemic is explored.

WTO > Working papers