Cooperar y competir: las denominaciones de origen protegidas de vinos de Aragón, 2000-2017

Considering the transformation that the Spanish wine sector must have faced –a decreasing wine consumption and targeting towards the foreign market– the purpose of this work is to analyze how the Aragonese Protected Designations of Origin have reacted between 1995 and 2017. Thus, we will study –from a theoretical perspective– the strategy of agglomeration (clusters) and the benefits that these techniques bring to the wineries; subsequently we will address the main characteristics of the sector, using the StructureConduct-Performance Paradigm (SCP), which will provide us with information about the number of companies in the sector, its concentration ratio, behavior strategies, interna..

Business, Economic and Financial History

On Some Problems of Using the Human Development Index in Economic History

We argue against the use of composite indices, such as the Human Development Index (HDI), in economic history. We show that the HDI can be interpreted as a formal representation of the analyst's ethical system. We support our claim by introducing a new class of paternalistic social welfare functions (Graaff 1957, Mas-Colell, 1995) which encompasses all the HDI formulas put forth by the literature. The theoretical framework is illustrated by an empirical investigation of the long-run evolution of Italians' living standards and civic liberties. We conclude that any history based on composite indices is one where both data and history play a minor role, if any.

Business, Economic and Financial History

Urbanisation and demography in North and West Africa, 1950-2020

This brief presents a factual and retrospective analysis of the relationships between urbanisation and demography in North Africa and West Africa. It shows that the process of demographic transition is now fully underway in this region. North of the Sahara the new demographic equilibrium features a birth rate higher than expected, according to theoretical model predictions, resulting in continuous population growth. Over 70% of the population now lives in cities, a number that is expected to continue to rise in the coming decades. South of the Sahara all countries have seen death rates plummet, followed by a decrease in birth rates. The gap between the change in the two variables has contrib..

Business, Economic and Financial History

The Deep Roots of Inequality

This paper uses a new dataset of Japanese village censuses, 1637-1872, to measure inequality in landownership. Surprisingly, lands were relatively equally distributed, and most peasants were de-facto landowners. Further, there was no trend in wealth inequality. This contrasts with Western Europe where wealth inequality was high and increasing. To explain this, I use a linked multi-generational dataset of village censuses to study land transmissions. I find that Japanese households differed from Europeans due to widespread adoption of male heirs when reproduction failed. As non-marginal landowners almost always had an heir, lands were kept in the family. In contrast, elite English male line..

Business, Economic and Financial History

The Impact of Individual Wealth on Posterior Political Power

I exploit a unique historical event to explore the causal relationship between individual wealth and posterior political power. Shortly after the foundation of Buenos Aires, plots of land in the outskirts of the city were randomly assigned to all heads of household that participated in the expedition. Using this random allocation of land as a source of exogenous variation on individuals’ wealth, I find that wealth causes political power. I also explore possible mechanisms and find support for the hypothesis that wealth signals (or improves) ability.

Business, Economic and Financial History

Wealth Inequality in Pre-industrial Rural England

How unequal were the commons preceding their enclosure in the 18th-19th cen-turies? This paper uses data from the parliamentary enclosure acts to estimate in-equality. Inclusive of the landless, I find gini coefficients ranged from 0.65-0.82 while the landless typically composed 40-50% of the population. Despite these regions be-ing the most equal within England at the time, their inequality was similar to typical villages in contemporary Italy and less equal than those in Germany or Japan. This confirms that the commons, most of which were enclosed by the 19th century, were already highly unequal and this paved the way to enclosure.

Business, Economic and Financial History

Gold is Old: Noble Metal in Indian Economy through Ages

For millennia, gold is considered auspicious in India and consumers have a fascination for possessing gold, gold jewellery, and gold coins. In this paper I document the sacredness associated with gold, the ancient Indian references to gold jewellery, availability and technology of extracting gold in those times, minting of gold coins and its function as a medium of exchange and store of value, and accumulation of gold stock due to favourable trade with the Occident in the common era. I draw attention to Indian obsession with gold in modern times, when none is produced domestically and it contributing negatively to India’s external account. The gargantuan stock of about 24,245 tonnes of gol..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Early monetary policies of the Tokugawa shogunate and merchants f coping strategies: 1695?1736

The Tokugawa monetary system was a new experience in Japanese history, and the Genroku debasement, which was necessitated by the exhaustion of gold and silver resources, was a new experiment for both the shogunate and merchants, the representatives of the townspeople. For the same reason, the shogunate had no choice but to implement a monetary policy gnominalistically, h but the merchants responded gmetallistically. h This was because the merchants valued money as bullion. The conflict between the shogunate and merchants played an important role in invigorating the Tokugawa economy. This study describes the historical economic situation.

Business, Economic and Financial History

Borderline Disorder: (De facto) Historical Ethnic Borders and Contemporary Conflict in Africa

We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary non-civil conflict in Africa. Exploiting variations across artificial regions (i.e., grids of 50x50km) within an ethnicity's historical homeland, we document that both the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are concentrated close to historical ethnic borders. Following a theory-based instrumental variable approach, which generates a plausibly exogenous ethno-spatial partition of Africa, we find that grid cells with historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several ..

Business, Economic and Financial History

The Long-run Gains from the Early Adoption of Electricity

This paper explores the effect of the early adoption of technology on local economic development. While timing and intensity of technology adoption are key drivers of economic divergence across countries, the immediate impact of new technologies within advanced countries has been elusive. Resolving this puzzle, this paper documents that the early adoption of electricity across late 19th century Switzerland was conducive to local economic development not just in the short-run, but also in the long-run. Exploiting exogenous variation in the potential to produce electricity from waterpower combined with rapid changes in power generation and transmission technology the evidence presented can pla..

Business, Economic and Financial History

The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists

The 20th century beheld a dramatic transformation of the family. Some Kuznets style facts regarding structural change in the family are presented. Over the course of the 20th century in the United States fertility declined, educational attainment waxed, housework fell, leisure increased, jobs shifted from blue to white collar, and marriage waned. These trends are also observed in the cross-country data. A model is developed, and then calibrated, to address the trends in the US data. The calibration procedure is closely connected to the underlying economic logic. Three drivers of the great transition are considered: neutral technological progress, skill-biased technological change, and drops ..

Business, Economic and Financial History

O Tell Me The Truth About Central Bank Digital Currency

Business, Economic and Financial History

On the Way to Another Place: Jordi Nadal and Rural Depopulation

In this paper we review the parts of the work of Jordi Nadal most related to the history of rural depopulation in Spain. Nadal examines several key aspects that naturally form part of the wider picture of the current state of affairs, including the role of industrialisation in inducing migratory movements from the countryside to the city and the decisive acceleration of this process during the second part of the Franco regime. We can find greater tension in issues such as the role of agricultural change of the future of depopulation, in which we can observe (inevitably) the influence of the historiographic and demographic context within which Nadal wrote his work. In conclusion, we stress th..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Hilferding, Woytinsky and the fiscal orthodoxy of interwar social democracy

In 1931, when the Great Depression hit Germany, German social democrats discussed a proposal for a (proto-Keynesian) public-debt financed employment program, the so-called WTB plan drafted by Vladimir Woytinsky. But under the leadership of Rudolf Hilferding, the SPD’s main economics spokesperson (and a former finance minister), the SPD rejected the proposal. The paper argues, firstly, that Hilferding’s endorsement of the gold standard and fiscal austerity can be traced to his analysis in Das Finanzkapital. It, secondly, rejects purely ideational interpretation of social democracy’s hostility to public employment programs. This becomes apparent when considering the experience of other E..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Quantifying political populism and examining the link with economic insecurity: evidence from Greece

At this juncture of human history populism is ubiquitous and Greek politics constitute no exception. This paper sheds light on a methodology that quantifies political populism (i.e. parliamentary populist rhetoric) in Greece through a novel textual dataset, which includes 16.5 years filled with heated debates over times of economic peaks and valleys. Combining computer with human intelligence to identify populism based upon a creative dictionary and strict definitional guidelines that fit the Hellenic Parliament’s context, helps one explore perspectives unimagined just a few years ago. Besides, as Greece has gone through a series of sharp, intense and generalized socio-economic shocks, thi..

Business, Economic and Financial History

"Welfare Costs of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from the 1972 Okinawa Reversion"

The main tenet of the New Keynesian (NK) paradigm is that price dispersion caused by nominal price stickiness is the primary source of allocative inefficiency. This study empirically evaluates the welfare implications of NK models by observing how internal and external price dispersion responds to two types of large aggregate shocks: high inflation and sharp currency depreciation. For this purpose, we consider the history of US military deployment on a small southern island in Japan called Okinawa following the Pacific War. We investigate unique data variations in micro-level retail prices surveyed in Okinawa and mainland Japan before and after the Okinawan reversion to Japanese sovereignty ..

Business, Economic and Financial History

TRAP'd Teens: Impacts of Abortion Provider Regulations on Fertility & Education

Targeted regulations of abortion providers (TRAP laws) are the fastest growing abortion restriction in the U.S. These often result in clinic closures, limiting abortion access. We study how women's exposure to these laws in adolescence affects their fertility and educational attainment. For this study, we codify the legal history of all TRAP laws ever implemented. We explore the impacts of TRAP laws on teen births using an event-study analysis and stacked differences-in-differences methodology to avoid issues of negative weighting inherent in two-way fixed effects approaches. Consistent with other evidence on abortion access, we find that impacts on births are large and robust for Black wome..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Technology Transfer and Early Industrial Development: Evidence from the Sino-Soviet Alliance

This paper studies the causal effect of technology and knowledge transfers on early industrial development. Between 1950 and 1957, the Soviet Union supported the “156 Projects” in China for the construction of technologically advanced, large-scale, capital-intensive industrial facilities. We exploit idiosyncratic delays in project completion and the unexpected end of the Sino-Soviet Alliance, due to which some projects received Soviet technology embedded in capital goods and know-how, while others were eventually realized by China alone using domestic technology. We find that receiving both Soviet technology and know-how had large, persistent effects on plant performance, while the effec..

Business, Economic and Financial History

A ThousandWords Tell More Than Just Numbers: Financial Crises and Historical Headlines

We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial over and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. The new indicators capture common features that have often been discussed as potential causes of specific crises but whic..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Welfare Costs of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from the 1972 Okinawa Reversion

The main tenet of the New Keynesian (NK) paradigm is that price dispersion caused by nominal price stickiness is the primary source of allocative inefficiency. This study empirically evaluates the welfare implications of NK models by observing how internal and external price dispersion responds to two types of large aggregate shocks: high inflation and sharp currency depreciation. For this purpose, we consider the history of US military deployment on a small southern island in Japan called Okinawa following the Pacific War. We investigate unique data variations in micro-level retail prices surveyed in Okinawa and mainland Japan before and after the Okinawan reversion to Japanese sovereignty ..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Rethinking Flow and Control Legal Models

In his 1978 lecture at the Collège de France on the theme of "Security, territory and population", Michel Foucault established a link between "circulation", "security" and "space". He depicted the approach to circulation in the 17th and 18th centuries, based on legal tools such as international agreements and national or local regulations, as the expression of a desire to secure flows in the different spaces (maritime and terrestrial). The objective of this article, intended for an interdisciplinary readership, is to counter this analysis by arguing that, for a certain number of major forms of circulation (release of greenhouse gases, spread of products and organisms of all kinds, pandemics..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Winner Takes All? Tech Clusters, Population Centers, and the Spatial Transformation of U.S. Invention

U.S. invention has become increasingly concentrated around major tech centers since the 1970s, with implications for how much cities across the country share in concomitant local benefits. Is invention becoming a winner-takes-all race? We explore the rising spatial concentration of patents and identify an underlying stability in their distribution. Software patents have exploded to account for about half of patents today, and these patents are highly concentrated in tech centers. Tech centers also account for a growing share of non-software patents, but the reallocation, by contrast, is entirely from the five largest population centers in 1980. Non-software patenting is stable for most citie..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Original divine proportions of general competitive equilibrium

The proof of the invisible hand discovers many interesting peculiarities of the general competitive equilibrium at times when Adam Smith was working on the ‘Wealth of Nations’. If his self-interested producer allocates his time between production and delivery to the ‘the door’ of the buyer with zero search costs and unintentionally maximizes customer’s consumption-leisure utility, both the marginal rate of transformation of production into delivery and the marginal rate of substitution of leisure for consumption become equal to the golden ratio conjugate whereas the sales-costs of production ratio becomes equal to the golden ratio itself. While the golden ratio was called by Luca P..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Wealth and History: An Update

This paper analyzes new evidence on long-run trends in aggregate wealth accumulation and wealth inequality in Western countries. The new findings suggest that wealth-income ratios were lower before World War I than previously claimed, that wealth concentration fell over the past century and has remained low in Europe but increased in the United States, that wealth has changed from being dominated by elite-owned fortunes to consist mainly of popular wealth, and that capital shares in national income have been relatively stable over time, especially in the postwar era. These findings cast doubt on claims that a low-tax, low-regulation capitalism will generate extreme capital accumulation, and ..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Robust estimation and forecasting of climate change using score-driven ice-age models

ScScore-driven models applied to finance and economics have attracted significant attention in the last decade. In this paper, we apply those models to climate data. We study the robustness of a recent climate econometric model, named ice-age model, and we extend that model by using score-driven filters in the measurement and transition equations. The climate variables considered are Antarctic ice volume Icet, atmospheric carbon dioxide level CO2,t, and land surface temperature Tempt, which during the history of the Earth were driven by exogenous variables. The influence of humanity on climate started approximately 10-15 thousand years ago, and it has significantly increased since then. We f..

Business, Economic and Financial History

The Interaction of Schumpeterian Institutional Entrepreneurship and Hayekian Institutional Change in Innovative Industries

Innovation often takes place in entrepreneurial ecosystems. We use the history of the Silicon Valley venture capital model and the Hollywood motion picture industry to illustrate how specialized institutions that regulate these entrepreneurial ecosystems emerged through actions by business entrepreneurs, rather than being designed by policymakers. Schumpeterian entrepreneurs not only create new companies; they also create new institutions as an integral part of the restructuring process. At times, efforts of identifiable entrepreneurs are crucial, while in other instances institutional change results from a Hayekian process of emergence fueled by business entrepreneurs’ efforts. Some insti..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Working Paper 358 - The Colonial Origins of Banking Crisis in Africa

Could initial – colonial and early post-colonial – conditions explain episodes of systemic crisis in banking systems today? We exploit differences in ethnic concentration of initial ownership and management structure of Nigerian banks established during the colonial era to examine banking crisis and vulnerability of the financial system in contemporary Nigeria. Although banking institutions emerged from or were a reaction to British colonial banking structure, they pursued different practices with respect to ownership and management structure. To measure these initial conditions, we use historical data from the Nigerian banking system to construct an index of diversity in the initial own..

Business, Economic and Financial History

Natural experiments help answer important questions for society

This year’s Laureates – David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens – have provided us with new insights about the labour market and shown what conclusions about cause and effect can be drawn from natural experiments. Their approach has spread to other fields and revolutionised empirical research.

Business, Economic and Financial History

Biographical

I was born in Detroit, Michigan to Abraham Isaac Milgrom and Anne Lillian Milgrom nee Finkelstein. Abraham Milgrom was born in Canada to Polish-Jewish immigrants, and Anne Finkelstein in Detroit, Michigan, to Ukrainian-Jewish immigrants. I am the second of the Milgroms’ four sons; Stuart is my older brother and Barry and Steven my younger twin brothers. We grew up in Oak Park – a suburb of Detroit – where I attended the John Dewey School followed by Oak Park High School, from which I graduated in 1966.

Business, Economic and Financial History

Biographical

After rocky early years, I had a happy youth in a small town, and then stumbled through eight years at Harvard, emerging with little sense of what to do next, until I moved to Stanford where my research thrived. A minor project on adverse selection in auctions led me to join in the nascent reconstruction of economic theory using game-theoretic models, and then later, foundational topics in game theory, all focused on the role of agents’ information and their effect on incentives. I’ve enjoyed working with PhD students and been fortunate to have superb co-authors with better skills.

Business, Economic and Financial History