Politics

Depuis que Haïti a conclu un accord politique début avril pour avancer vers une « transition ordonnée », de nombreux progrès ont été réalisés. Médié par la Communauté des Caraïbes (CARICOM), cet accord fixe à février 2026 l’échéance pour la mise en place d’un gouvernement et d’un parlement élus. Bien que politiquement et administrativement fragile, une structure de gouvernance transitoire est en place, dirigée par un Conseil présidentiel de transition (CPT) et le Premier ministre Garry Conille. Une mission multinationale de soutien à la sécurité (MSS), dirigée par le Kenya, est désormais active dans le pays et travaille à stabiliser la situation sécuritaire.

Last week, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) met in Nukuʻalofa, Tonga, to discuss the challenges affecting the region. The PIF is an intergovernmental organization with the purpose of enhancing cooperation among the countries and territories of Oceania, including Australia, New Zealand, 14 independent Pacific Island countries, and France’s territories of New Caledonia and French Polynesia. China and the United States interact with the PIF as dialogue partners and the Pacific Islands have emerged in recent years as another arena of great power competition.

Since Haiti reached a political agreement in early April to push ahead with an “orderly transition," much progress has been made. Mediated by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), that deal has a February 2026 timetable for an elected government and parliament. Although politically and administratively wobbly, a transitional governance structure is in place, led by a Transition Presidential Council (TPC) and Prime Minister Garry Conille. A Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support mission (MSS) is now active in the country and working to stabilize the security situation. Working with Haiti’s political and civil society leadership, the country’s diaspora and key international actors, the U..

Israeli soldiers’ discovery of six of their country’s hostages shot dead in a tunnel underneath Rafah, Gaza has placed the question of a cease-fire’s prospects in stark relief. Coming as the U.S. had already stepped up efforts to push for an Israel-Hamas agreement, the grim fate of the hostages can simultaneously be viewed as providing a catalyst for the urgent conclusion of a deal, or as a harbinger of diplomatic derailment for a process the U.S., Egypt and Qatar had been in the throes of pushing to resolution.

A U.S.-led peace initiative to end Sudan’s brutal civil war took place in Geneva over the last two weeks. But despite invitations and extensive international pressure, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) declined to send a delegation to Switzerland altogether, while the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sent a delegation.

Details from U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan’s recent meetings in Beijing with senior Chinese officials have been scarce. But amid simmering tensions, the fact the meeting occurred at all is notable, says USIP’s Dean Cheng: “The point here, I suspect, is simply to have communications.”

President Joe Biden’s top national security aide, Jake Sullivan, met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last week, along with other top Chinese officials, as Washington and Beijing look to address bilateral tensions. Relations hit one of their lowest points in years in August 2022 after then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and China responded by cutting off bilateral communications on areas ranging from military matters to climate cooperation. But both sides have attempted to pull back from the brink with a series of high-level meetings in the last two years, including between Biden and Xi in November 2023.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kyiv on Friday, marking the first time an Indian leader has gone to Ukraine since its 1991 independence. Ukrainian officials said the visit demonstrated diplomatic backing for the war-torn nation, as it looks to build support among non-Western nations ahead of any potential negotiations on a settlement to the conflict. Although India has long-standing close ties with Russia, it has sought to portray a neutral stance on the conflict. As part of Modi’s bid to boost India’s international clout, he wants to demonstrate that Delhi can play a constructive, “friendly” role in resolving the war.

USIP convened an expert panel of scholars and researchers over a four-month period in 2023–24 to explore lessons learned from the management of conflicts in prior periods of global turbulence. This is the first paper in a three-part series from the convenings and focuses on the examination of contemporary conflict trends, drivers, and dynamics and how these differ from prior conflicts.

For weeks, concerns over the risk of miscalculation or even intentional escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have dominated attention. Ramped up cross-border attacks between the two sides on Sunday, August 25 have left each side simultaneously claiming success “for now,” suggesting a much-feared larger conflagration may have been averted in the near term. However, implications for longer-term risk and mutual deterrence, Iran’s calculations for escalation, and linkage to the still-elusive Gaza cease-fire remain uncertain.

After protests forced longtime Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign earlier this month, Bangladesh’s new interim government is “seeking, at this moment, to grasp that democratic spark” and “set forward the reforms that are going lead to a new political culture” in the country, says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

El 28 de julio, Venezuela celebró una de las elecciones más importantes de su historia. La oposición política del país, liderada por María Corina Machado, superó la desilusión popular, las divisiones políticas y un sistema electoral amañado para obtener una aplastante victoria para su candidato de unidad, Edmundo González Urrutia. Según un grupo de la sociedad civil, los cálculos «extrapolados de los recibos oficiales del conteo de votos» de una muestra representativa de centros de votación locales otorgan a González el 66% de los votos. La oposición venezolana respondió al momento con una inspirada campaña prodemocracia.

Earlier this month, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made the surprise announcement that he would not seek another term. Although he was prime minister for less than four years, Kishida’s foreign policy legacy spans strategic and tactical advances in Japan’s defense and diplomatic posture. His approach represented both a continuation of and divergence from the legacy of his former boss, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, under whom Kishida acted as Japan’s longest-serving foreign minister. Although Kishida’s successes on foreign affairs were overshadowed by domestic political scandals involving his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as well as lack-luster economic growth, he oversaw increa..

On the sidelines of last month’s NATO summit, the United States and Germany announced that Washington will begin episodic deployments of long-range conventional capabilities to Germany. In 1987, the United States and Soviet Union agreed to eliminate these systems under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, but Russia’s violations led the United States to withdraw from the treaty in 2019. Three years later, Russia invaded Ukraine and has engaged in nuclear saber-rattling since then. Washington plans to deploy these systems to strengthen deterrence, but Moscow has criticized them.

From their base in ungoverned stretches of Southeast Asia, international criminal networks are prowling the Internet, seeking to defraud victims around the world with sophisticated and psychologically devastating scams. Gangsters operating out of Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, relying on forced labor, have spread their tentacles through Asia, Africa and Latin America and increasingly within the United States, stripping gullible prey of at least $64 billion annually. Clearly, to eradicate such a global menace will require a coordinated international response. Even so, the United States is not internally powerless to confront this striking example of how conflict and corrupt governance in distant..

Over five decades into the “Asian peace,” there are reasons to be pessimistic about the future security of the Indo-Pacific. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ignited concerns of conflict in Asia and Moscow’s nuclear threats have unearthed the specter of nuclear war as China rapidly augments its nuclear capabilities. An escalating arms race between the U.S. and China will inevitably leave non-nuclear weapon states caught in the middle. But all is not lost. In Asia, there are existing security mechanisms that could be revitalized to reinforce strategic stability. One of those mechanisms is the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ).

July 2024 marked the third time South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol joined a NATO summit along with the leaders of the alliance’s other Indo-Pacific partner countries (Australia, Japan and New Zealand), informally known as the IP4. This represents a new phase in South Korea’s relations with the Atlantic alliance, but building a lasting friendship will take time and requires navigating a series of challenges. Amid an emerging global division of democratic and authoritarian camps and the challenges posed by China and Russia for both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions, it is incumbent on both Brussels and Seoul to build a more cooperative relationship. That journey, however, has ju..

On August 5, a student-led revolution toppled Bangladesh’s increasingly repressive prime minister, Sheikh Hasina. After 15 years in power, her government’s sudden and improbable collapse creates the possibility for a new era in Bangladesh. Democratic champions are reinvigorated, but instability and violence will grow in the near term and countervailing forces will likely emerge to blunt progress. Bangladesh’s revolutionary moment is not yet a revolution. Only sustained and deliberate political reform can finish what the students started. The United States can help.

On July 28, Venezuela held one of the most consequential elections in its history. The country’s political opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, overcame popular disillusionment, political divides and a rigged electoral system to earn a landslide victory for its unity candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia. According to one civil society group, estimates “extrapolated from the official vote count receipts” from a representative sample of local voting centers give González 66% of the vote. Venezuela’s opposition met the moment with an inspired pro-democracy campaign.

Almost 30 months into Vladimir Putin’s brutalization of Ukraine with a full-scale invasion that has pulverized vast swaths of its farmlands, towns and cities, Ukrainians have surprised Putin and the world by driving the war back into Russia — a move that, if nothing else, has altered the current narrative around this conflict. Ukraine has again brandished its determination, initiative and innovation, effectively resetting assumptions in its defense against its much larger attacker. The possible outcomes of Ukraine’s strike remain varied and unpredictable — and its eventual implications will rest on the evolutions of several questions, both military and political.

One of Africa’s longest wars shifted toward a conclusion in July when France recognized Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the Western Sahara. That action, alongside Morocco’s military advantage, effectively will leave the indigenous Sahrawi independence movement with no choice but to eventually settle for some form of autonomy within Morocco. While this reality will be unsatisfactory for the estimated 173,000 Sahrawis living in refugee camps, their best option, and that of their backer, Algeria, is now to seize the opportunity to negotiate for best-possible peace terms with Morocco. Ending a war that keeps so many stateless and living in squalor while also removing a major irritant t..

The resistance’s capture of the northern city of Lashio on August 3 marks a watershed moment in Myanmar’s conflict. After a month of fierce fighting, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and allied resistance forces captured this crucial stronghold in northern Shan State, dealing a severe blow to the beleaguered junta. This represents more than just the loss of a major city. It is the first time that a military regional command has been captured by resistance forces.

In January, Fiji police seized more than four tons of methamphetamine during two raids in Nadi, marking one of the largest drug seizures in the country’s history. But while Fiji police made the seizure, they weren’t working alone. Such a significant law enforcement operation would not have been possible without the immense multi-jurisdictional, cross-border coordination between Fiji’s police, the Australian Federal Police and the Pacific Transnational Crime Coordination Centre.

The Ukrainian military seized a chunk of territory in the Kursk region of Russia as part of a surprise incursion that has left the Russian military in “a panic,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen, adding that Putin’s strategy until now did not “take into account that Ukraine could strike back, and they certainly have.”

Demand for critical minerals is expected to skyrocket in the decades ahead. These minerals — such as copper, cobalt and lithium, among others — power the electronics we use every day and are essential for transitioning to greener energy technologies. The U.S. is increasingly working with African partners to develop the continent’s abundant critical minerals, an effort that is vital to advancing U.S. economic and national security interests. It also will have major implications for African countries: How these critical minerals are developed will significantly impact the continent’s economic future and beyond, even affecting peace and stability. This increasing U.S. policy focus comes..

Last week’s prisoner exchange with Russia — the largest since the Cold War, with 24 captives exchanged among seven countries — sparked hopes internationally that, just maybe, similarly determined diplomacy might help thaw the frigid relations between Russia and the West and open space for a negotiated end to Russia’s aggressions abroad. Unfortunately, the prisoner deal’s underlying message is that Vladimir Putin’s regime uses negotiations only when it sees the outcome, as it did last week, as a victory at the expense of its perceived enemies. The deal illustrates the narrowness of opportunity for any negotiated solution to settle the sides’ differences.

When negotiations between the Colombian government and the rebel FARC group kicked off in 2013, only one of the 20 negotiators was a woman. Two years later, 20 percent of government negotiators and 43 percent of FARC negotiators were women. Their participation broadened the agenda of the talks that led to the historic 2016 peace accord, which included important gender provisions. Women’s participation in the Colombia peace process was a clear peacebuilding success — and it was ultimately made possible by a diverse national women’s coalition, which mobilized to insist on gender-inclusive negotiations.

In recent years, Beijing has been reevaluating its conceptual framework for foreign policy, with a focus on enhancing its role in global governance. With the aim of transforming China into the world's leading country, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has put forward a number of new initiatives — including the Global Security Initiative (GSI) — as a way of creating new formats of cooperation between China and the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Global South.

There is a growing mental health crisis in Myanmar — one fueled by the junta’s violent atrocities against the population and a humanitarian crisis that has displaced an estimated 3.1 million people.

The recent exchange of prisoners between Russia and Western countries was historic on multiple fronts. But the “coherence and solidarity” displayed by U.S. allies was what made the deal possible, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor: “The conversations among allies were as important as the conversation with the Russians.”